Transition in Action, Totnes 2030, an Energy Descent Action Plan

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Where we are now

Our current approach to food is to assume that the market will always provide. The British Government has become increasingly hands-off in terms of food production, assuming that the market will build a wide enough base across the world to ensure reliable supplies. It also associates local farming increasingly with supplying niche markets, rather than providing essential foodstuffs. Here are a few facts about our current food production system;

At present, the UK imports 40% of its food, 25% of which is food that we could have grown here in the first place.
We import 95% of our fruit.
The UK exports 15.5 million tons of potatoes to Germany, and imports 17.2 million back into the UK
We export 9.9 million kilos of milk and cream to France, and import 10.2 million
80% of our shopping is done in supermarkets, local food accounts for less than 1.5% of total UK food sales.
UK agriculture is still largely dependent on natural gas for manufacturing fertilisers, which, given that 80% of UK gas will be imported by 2016, leads to a high degree of vulnerability.
Global reserves of potash are running low. The UK currently imports 80% of our potash, and the price rose by 700% last year. Some argue that given its essential role as a fertiliser, ‘peak potash’ could be more of a problem than peak oil.

A Business-as-Usual scenario would mean that by 2030, Totnes and District has less farmers, grow less food for local markets, and have less skilled people working in agriculture. The quality of its soils will have continued to deteriorate, and the nutritional quality of the food it does grow will continue to decline. The grip of the supermarkets will have become absolute (given that they already sell over 80% of the food sold in this country, one could say it already has). The challenge for the area in terms of food production can be best summed up by use of the analogy of a cake. Totnes and District, until round 1850 when the railways arrived, was largely self-reliant for food, with its core needs produced locally. In 1850, the cake was produced locally, and what was imported was the icing and the cherry on top of the cake. Now this is reversed. By 2030, we will be buying our cake wherever in the world we can find it cheapest, and the local farmers that remain will be producing the meagre icing and the cherries on top of the cake. This will leave us vulnerable, under-skilled, and ill prepared for times of increased uncertainty and insecurity.

According to SouthWestID¹, the average South West household spent £45 per week (2006) on its food shopping² (£10 lower than the UK average). Given that Totnes and District contains 9,481 households³, this would make the total spent on food in Totnes and District currently around £450,000. While this may seem a very low amount, even half of this spent on local food would encourage the further development of locally based food producers with the wider beneficial impact on our environment, economy and wellbeing.

A strategy to encourage the more localised, resilient approach to feeding Totnes and District that this Plan sets out, would need to be based on the following principles;

It will need to be well on the way to the 80% cut in carbon emissions by 2050 (as stated by UK Government policy)
The concept of resilience, the ability at all levels to withstand shock, must be key, embodied in the ability of the settlement in question, and its food supply system, to adapt rapidly to rising energy costs and climate change
The need for improved access to nutritious and affordable food
The need for far more diversity than at present, in terms of species, ecosystems, produce, occupations, etc. to support food production systems
The need to increase the capacity of our soils to act as a carbon sink requires us to adopt more perennial, farming systems supporting grass and tree systems, as well as making good soil management and the building of organic matter in soils a priority
More intrinsically linked to local markets than at present, supplying local markets by preference where possible
A much reduced dependence on fertilisers and other agrochemicals (ideally enabled by a shift to organic practices)
Accompanying this will also be the need for a large increase in the amount of food produced from back gardens, allotments and other more ‘urban’ food sources
That the use of genetically modified crops has no place in a more sustainable agriculture

This gives rise to the oft-asked question, “can organic farming feed the world?” The answer to this question is really that in the coming years, given the degree of oil dependency of conventional farming and the amount of natural gas required by fertiliser production, farming in the future will at least be organic, from necessity, cost and practicality rather than choice. What else farming will be is still open for debate. One last challenge that a more localised food system will need to address is that of who will do the farming. It has been estimated that post oil agriculture will need to employ around 20% of its population in food production.