This is the question we will be exploring in this section. Is it feasible that Totnes and District might be able to meet its own energy needs through renewable sources of energy, to take the lead in demonstrating the hugely beneficial impact that localising energy generation would have? What even a cursory look at this question reveals is that if we look at meeting current energy demand the answer is no. Fossil fuels pack an energy punch unprecedented in human history, and they will be irreplaceable. If however, as the Centre for Alternative Technology argue in their ‘Zero Carbon Britain’ report¹, we are able to ‘power down’ (i.e. reduce demand) by 50%, then the remaining 50% could be met through renewables (“powering up”). So, let’s look at the practicalities of that.

Before we start, there are a few caveats to be borne is mind. This energy budget will not be looking at addressing energy imported in the embodied energy of goods. As outlined in the Energy Security section, this is estimated to currently almost double our UK energy demand per capita. It may well be that to make a comprehensive energy budget, we should take this level of detail into consideration when we look at the capacity for producing the raw materials and industry for these goods in the UK. However for the benefit of simplicity, this EDAP limits any assessment to producing goods locally and quantifying the energy required to provide transport and services based on current usage. On the assumption of limited access to energy, we can assume that we will have considerably less consumer goods available to us in the near future.

Neither will we be looking at the seasonal impact of renewable energy production when assessing whether demand can be met. This is considerable and will be important to develop in further study when building a more detailed budget; when also weighing in the unknowns around climate change bringing in many meteorological variables which would be outside of the scope of this EDAP to bring any degree of accuracy to. We simply present the final assessments of estimated annual demand and renewable energy production to enable a rough estimate of what level of local energy demand could be met locally and weigh in the possible national large-scale production by per capita share.

Similarly this budget does not consider in detail the kinds of energy produced (i.e. fuel type) or the embodied energy of the technology, i.e. the inputs to technological devices such as turbines, before they return a net energy gain. These variables are likely to change considerably over the near future as energy concerns and needs increase and research and innovation in these important issues grows such that current information could be misleading.

We will not be going into extensive detail of possible energy efficiency and reduction in use of energy, except for a cursory exploration of the impact of insulation on space heating and reducing personal transport use. Again there are so many variables, we would get lost in the detail and could also be wildly inaccurate as there are likely to be many developments in societal behaviour and technology; instead we draw some basic conclusions to enable some useful comparisons to be made.

Establishing the Baseline Picture

In 2006, the Totnes Sustainability Group commissioned the Devon Association for Renewable Energy to write the “South Devon Renewable Energy Scoping Study” (hereinafter referred to as the DARE report). Its objective was “to quantify the available renewable energy resources within South Devon, to identify the constraints and opportunities for their implementation, to provide policy makers with the information they need in order to develop policies in this area and specifically to look at Totnes as a case study”². The study focused on technologies then currently available or under development and linked up landscape considerations to the various technologies, so as to enable a realistic identification of the most suitable ones. Given that this excellent piece of work already exists, what we have done here is to adapt, update and add to the DARE report’s findings for the Totnes and District area, rather than reinvent the wheel. We are hugely indebted to this detailed and visionary piece of work that was at least 5 years ahead of its time.

The DARE report covered the whole South Hams area, here we have adapted their findings for the Totnes and District area; i.e. the 16 parishes of T&D comprises about 25% of the number of households in the original study area. As it would not be feasible to gather individual household energy usage information, the data used here is based on UK national averages. The demand and consumption data has been updated to 2008 reference data based on Government statistics³  for average UK energy supply and consumption data and Devon County Council 2008 population and household estimates.

Totnes and District has a considerable proportion of holiday homes and second homes, these have been included in the estimates and totals, as these houses may be part-time occupied and their consumption is probably lower than the average, but their energy production potential will be the same as other houses. Due to increasing scarcity of resources including housing over the next 21 years, we expect these houses may well also become occupied full-time during the timeline 2009 – 2030. If they remain as part time occupied, this would only lead to overestimates of energy needs (which is preferable) rather than underestimates.

In assessing energy demand for Totnes and District, estimates of both per capita and household annual demand are provided to enable a closer understanding of how we use energy. However only the household data is used to estimate the total baseline annual demand and to further calculate changing energy demand of rising projected population over the next 21 years and calculate in probable reductions in demand over the same period. The household data is also used in assessing the potential for annual renewable energy production, (as domestic buildings are an important structure for energy generation) along with landscape and spatial considerations. However non-domestic buildings (which are estimated to number approximately 1,838 in the Building and Housing section of this EDAP) are not included in these calculations as we do not have data for their energy demand and to assess this would be outside the scope of this EDAP. (It can be assumed however that non-domestic buildings will play an important role in energy production over the next 20 years, and this will further increase the ability of T & D to produce power to meet its own needs).

The Totnes and District area has a fairly low level of industrial activity, mostly small light commercial parks. However, the average UK figures take account of UK based industrial activity taking place that provides consumables and manufactured products brought into the South Hams for consumption.

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