In 2007, the UK imported 20.2% of its consumption of primary fuels¹. With UK oil and gas production in the North Sea in sharp decline this gap, in effect, the UK’s energy deficit is widening sharply, and we will need to find alternative domestic energy supplies or increase imports. However, fossil fuel supplies world wide are also in decline, with more than 65 of the 98 oil producing nations having passed their peak in oil production, and those nations whose production hasn’t yet peaked will need more and more of it themselves; therefore less and less imported energy will become available to the UK.

As fossil fuels become scarcer, they become more costly and energy intensive to extract. The ratio of the amount of energy a resource provides and the amount of energy required to recover that resource is known as Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI). EROEIs for fossil fuels decline as resources decline and are likely to indicate that other sources of energy such as renewables are a more profitable for short-term as well as long term investment.

Actual & Possible Future UKCS Oil & Gas Production (Source: UK. Dept. Environment and Climate Change (DECC))

The UK has a security of supply problem looming, this is known as the “energy gap”. A substantial number of old coal and nuclear power stations (around 30% of the current total generation capacity) are scheduled to close by 2020. These currently produce 22.5 gigawatts (GW) of energy production; leaving a risk that energy demand will exceed supply unless alternative energy supplies are available. As former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson said in 2008, “all in all, the likelihood of the lights going out in Europe at some point over the next 20 years has never been greater”. The question that really must arise from looking at the graph above is, where is our energy going to come from?

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